US retail sales January
US retail sales


  • Ex-autos -0.6% versus +0.2% expected.
  • Prior ex-autos +0.4%
  • Control group -0.4% versus +0.3% expected
  • Prior control group +0.8% (revised to +0.6%)
  • Retail sales ex gas and autos -0.5% s +0.6% prior

Coming into this report, retail sales were higher in seven of the past eight months but note that retail sales aren't adjusted for inflation so that's not quite a strong as it looks; though it's still impressive given falling gasoline prices.

This is the second top-tier data miss of the year after a weak ISM services number. Everything else has been on the strong side. However this is a decent forward-looking indicator so it shouldn't be ignored.

The US dollar fell across the board on the data with EUR/USD rising to 1.0767 from 1.0745 and similar moves elsewhere. The majority of the post-CPI dollar rally has now been erased.