The probe lower yesterday stalled and reversed
In a post yesterday, I outlined the break below an upper swing area where most of the price action came in above 0.7700 and below 0.78174 (see upper red box in the chart below). That break entered a "neutral area" that was between an upper red box and a lower red box (between 0.7577 and 0.7663). The neutral area has seen limited price action going back to March 24.
The break lower yesterday moved down to test the 61.8% retracement of the range since April 13. It also tested the swing high failed break from April 7 at 0.7676, but could not reenter the lower red box area.
The price rebounded into the close and in the process moved back into the
- Upper red box area,
- Moved above the 50% retracement and
- Also moved above the 100 day moving average at 0.77042.
Today after Asian session run higher, the price fell back down to retest the 0.7700 area and the 100 day moving average. Buyers leaned, and the price has since moved higher. Buyers remained in control.
That move to the upside has had a limit. That limit is near the 100 hour moving average currently at 0.77385 (and moving lower). It would take a move above that 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average currently at 0.77545 (green line) to give buyers even more control.
For now, there is some cause for pause against the 100 hour moving average. Can the buyers push back through it and explore more of the upper red box area once again? A move back above the 100 hour moving average, should solicit stops with more work ahead in getting above the 200 hour moving average. Stay below, and focus returns back to the 0.7700 and 100 day moving average area.
