AUDUSD scraping along the bottoms

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | audusd

...and the lowest levels since March 2009


The AUDUSD is scraping along the recent bottoms which also happened to be the lowest levels since March 2009. The price in February dipped below its 2019 low price of 0.6670.  

...and the lowest levels since March 2009_
The 1st dip on February 6 took the price to 0.66617 - only about 8 pips below the 2019 low.  On February 20, the price fell below that level and has remained below since that time.  The high corrective price reached 0.66383 on Friday. Looking at the hourly chart, that high stalled just ahead of the broken trend line.

The lows over the last 3 days have been between 0.65828 and 0.65857. Today's low reached 0.65857. We have corrected modestly to 0.65929. 

The four separate swing lows lows over those days has helped create a risk defining level for buyers. It also gives sellers a target that would need to be broken in order to probe further to the downside. So that level is key.

On the topside, the high today filled the weekend gap on the hourly chart, while staying also below the broken trend line and the falling 100 hour moving average (currently at 0.66201). That area (between 0.66187 and 0.66223) would need to be broken to give the dip buyers (against the floor) more upside confidence with 0.66383 (the swing hi from Friday) and the 38.2% retracement at 0.66465, and the falling 200 hour moving average at 0.6666 the next targets on more upside momentum.

The fundamentals with coronavirus risk/fears remain to the downside. However, there is always the chance for better news and/or corrective runs.  The technicals (with the bottom floor and the 100 hour MA as the key levels now), will help shape the story.  You have to listen to the price action when the markets are subject to more volatility and news headlines.   

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