Waiting for the Fed (risk on or risk off)
The AUDUSD stays near highs for the day and above support levels as the market awaits the FOMC decision and either "risk on" (up for AUDUSD) or "risk off" flows (down for AUDUSD).
The pair is above support at 0.6982-86 swing highs going back to last week and the rising 100 hour MA at 0.69732.
Earlier today -and yesterday - the price dipped below the 100 hour MA level for the first time since May 26th, only to fail to extend to the next downside targets. For example, today, the low was well above the low from yesterday (today 0.69319, yesterday 0.6898).
It will take a move below the 100 hour MA (and stay below) to give sellers more confidence. That confidence will only increase on moves below downside targets at 0.69487-56(swing area), 0.69319 (low from today) and 0.6898 (low from yesterday). If they are not reached and also taken out the market may be unsure of the upside, but the sellers are not really taking too much control. BTW, the 200 hour MA is near the low from yesterday at 0.68971. Earmark that level as a key target.
Failure to do that (or even start to do that on a break of the 100 hour MA), and getting back above the high for the day at 0.7019 and the high from yesterday at 0.70416, would be the next upside targets.
Taking a look at the daily chart below, getting above the 0.70416 would also take the price above the high from the end of December at 0.70314. The high yesterday pushed above that level and should have solicited more buying, but failed. That gives the buyers more to prove on a break higher.
More upside would look toward the July high at 0.70813 (see daily chart below).
It is up to the Fed to see which way bias tilts from here.
