AUDUSD trades to lowest level since December 2020

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | audusd

Scrapes near the lows for the day.  

The AUDUSD is scraping near the lows for the day as stocks and yields remain depressed. The price for the AUDUSD is trading down at 0.7325. That just took out the earlier session low at 0.73258. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also below a swing area near 0.7336 to  0.73385 (see red numbered circles in the daily chart below). Stay below that level keeps the pressure firmly to the downside
. AUDUSD on the daily chart
The S&P is down -90 points or 2.09% at 4237. The price is on track currently to closing below the 50 day MA for only the 3rd time in 2021 (the 50 day MA is at 4239.91).  

In the US debt market the 10 year is down -11.8 basis points and below the 200 day MA at 1.2754%. The yield has not traded below the 200 day MA since November 2020.  The low has reached 1.1810% which is the lowest level since February 11.  The 50% retracement of the move up from the August low yield at 0.5050 is now the next major target at at 1.1396%.

US 10 year yield is below the 200 day moving average
Going back to the AUDUSD, looking at the 5 minute chart, the price action did show a sharp spike higher early in the North American session. That move higher saw the price back above the falling 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below), but the rise stalled ahead of its 200 bar moving average (green line). 

The subsequent decline retested the earlier low for the day and consolidated above and below those lows near 0.73274.  The last few minutes have seen the price move below the lows for the North American session between 0.7326 to 0.73274.   

Ultimately, it will take a move above the 100 bar moving average on the chart below at 0.7338 (and moving lower) to tilt the bias more to the upside.  

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