Dollar gets a boost after PPI data

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

Ex food and beat to the upside (+0.4% vs +0.2% estimate)

The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD are all trading at extremes (dollar positive) after the better than expected US PPI data. The initial jobless claims are also showing a rebound, although it is still being influenced by hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria).  

The EURUSD peaked against the 50% and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart earlier today as outlined in the wrap last night ("The next key target comes in at the 1.1878-80 area where the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour is found AND the 50% of the move down from the September high. That level will test the buyers bullish desire.  Look for sellers on the first test (at least)").   Sellers came in at the area (high reached 1.18792) and rotated lower.

The fall is chasing the pair back toward the support at 1.1837 and then the 1.1822-32 area. That area defines a bullish above and bearish below defining line. 

The GBPUSD moved to test the underside of a broken trend line at 1.31249. The low came in at 1.31212.  So there is a reason to pause the sharp fall in the GBPUSD today at that area. Be aware.

Looking at the 5- minute chart, the pair has been trending lower with little in the way of corrections.  Trends are fast, directional and tend to go further than you expect, so a break lower should not be ignored. Also, trends do tend to find sellers on corrections. Looking at the chart below the 100 hour MA at 1.31638 (overlayed on the chart below) and the 38.2% of the move down from the high before the tumble comes in at 1.3175. Those are levels to eye sellers.

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