Below the 100 hour MA
The EURUSD is trading down today. On Wednesday, the pairs price moved higher. On Thursday, the price went lower. On Friday it went higher. So today is a down day.
Technically, the Friday low reached toward the 50% retracement at 1.1784 (the low reached 1.1786). The price moved back above the 100 hour MA (blue line) and closed near the highs. The high stalled near the swing area between 1.1866-693 (before the high from last week at 1.18802).
The fall today, has seen the pair move back below a wide swing area between 1.1830 to 1.1840, the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.18355). The pair has traded above and below the upward sloping trend line. If the price can stay below the 100 hour MA (and higher swing area up to 1.1840), the bears have more of the trading day advantage.
At the lows for the day, the pair has tested the 38.2% of the move up from the October 15 low at 1.18067. If the price can get and stay below the 38.2% retracement, the bias is more bearish. The rising 200 hour MA at 1.17858 and the 50% at 1.1884 would be the next targets.
SUMMARY: Sellers are in control today in the up and down market seen over the last 4 or so trading days. There is some interim support near the 38.2% which is providing some support, however. Get below would tilt the bias more to the downside. Stay above and the 100 hour MA will be the focus again.
