Watching April 10 swing high below at 1.09672 for intraday clues
The EURUSD started the week's trading near the lows (was retested on Tuesday) and near a swing area at 1.0811-16. Also near the Monday/Tuesday week lows was the 100 hour MA (blue line). The ability to hold near that MA/swing area, was an earlier clue for the bullish run higher. That hold set the stage for the bulls/buyers this week.
That run higher has reached it's peak today at 1.09893. That high was right near the high from April 15. Double top so far. Just above the double top (within 13 pips) is the falling 100 day MA at 1.10027. The last time the price traded above the 100 day MA was back on March 31. The 1.1000 is a key natural resistance level as well. Keep those targets in mind on more upside.
Let's just say, the EURUSD is running into some key risk/bias defining levels between 1.0989 and 1.10027. That often gives traders cause for pause as risk is defined and limited with stops on a break above. If sellers do show up, you don't have to go far to make what you risked. Successful traders will take that trade off all the time. I like to say, "Risk a little, to make more than a little" (i.e. more than the small amount risked).
Having said that, the back off from the high has been modest. In fact, the price is still higher on the day. The low corrective price is at 1.0970. For me, the 1.09672 is a target that needs to be broken and stay broken to give the sellers some added confidence.
The significance of that level?
If you go back to April 10, that was the swing high (not shown but it was the high). On April 15, there was a intraday ceiling for a couple hourly bars before running lower.
Get below (and stay below) and we could some buyers rotate to sellers. Stay above, and the buyers are still in full control, with the caveat that there is some key resistance at the 1.1000 area to still get through (and stay above).
