After stalling twice at the 200 day MA, the last two days has seen price action above and below the MA
The GBPUSD stalled in April not once but twice right against its 200 day moving average (green line in the chart below). Finally on Friday, the price of the pair extended above the moving average level and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December 2019 high at 1.27096. However, the price could not sustain the momentum and the pair cell right near its 200 day moving average at 1.26668.
Today the price action has continued to waffle around the moving average level. The low (below the MA) reached 1.2627. The high (above the MA) reached 1.27283 (just below the high from Friday at 1.27303. We currently trade at 1.2682.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair did fall below a upward sloping trendline in the low late Asian and early European session. That helped trigger the move lower. However the price remains above a swing high from Wednesday and swing low from Friday along with the 50% retracement of the move up from Thursday all around the 1.2615 level. The low price for the day reached 1.2627. It would take a move below that 1.2615 and the rising 100 hour moving average at 1.26044 to weaken the technical picture. The price has not traded below its 100 hour moving average since May 28.
Overall, there is some weakness today and some uncertainty on direction with the price waffling above and below the 200 day moving average. However, until the price can move below the 100 hour moving average, the buyers still hold a better hand vs. the corrective sellers overall. That does not mean the momentum can shift. Traders will be watching the technical levels for clues.
