The CAD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | forex

The USD is mixed at the start of the North American session

As North American traders enter for the trading day, the CAD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the AUD it is the weakest.  The USD is mixed with gains vs. the EUR, AUD, JPY and CHF and declines vs. the CAD and GBP.   The AUD fell after the central bank "surprisingly" extended its QE program (see post here) during its policy meeting and rate decision.  The AUDUSD is trading at session lows. The EURUSD it is also lower again after yesterdays decline.  The EU economy continues to weaken with Euro GDP coming in at -0.7%.  Althought was better-than-expected, the news is old news (4Q) and the market is more focused on how Covid continue to weigh on the economies.  The ECB is also more concerned about the strength of the EUR, and with dollar short positions continuing to be near elevated levels (especially vs the EUR), the room for a squeeze may be developing.  

The USD is mixed at the start of the North American session
 Looking at the ranges and changes, as mentioned the EURUSD and AUDUSD are near session lows as North American traders enter. The other pairs vs. the US dollar are also moving toward dollar high levels for the day, and off lower extremes seen earlier in the session (the declines in the greenback are being retraced).  JPY growth pairs are mixed despite gains in stocks in premarket trading.  The JPY pairs can tend to go higher during risk on flows (i.e., stock buying). The market is ignoring that correlation.  

The ranges and changes for the major currency pairs
In other markets:
  • spot gold is trading down $19 or -1.03% $1841.58.
  • Spot silver is also down $-1.44 or 4.95% to $27.61.  Recall from yesterday the price moved up to $30.10 on the back of Wall Street Bets pumping over the weekend.  In response to the sharp rise, the futures markets raised margin requirements and that may be waiting on the price today.
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $1.27 or 2.37% ahead of OPEC committee meetings today and tomorrow. There is expectations for no change in output policy.  The price of the contract broke out of its sideways trading range seen since January 10th. The price is trading at the highest level since January 2020 for the March contract. 
  • Bitcoin is trading at $1225 at $34,890. The price today has stayed above its 200 hour moving average at $33,187 currently. The low price today reached $33,456.20
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are continuing the rally from yesterday's trading which is all the NASDAQ index search by 332.7 points or 2.55%. The S&P index was up 59.62 points. After the close Amazon, Apple, Chipotle, EA, FireEye will all report earnings.  The snapshot of the market currently shows:

  • Dow industrial average up 251 points. It rose 229.29 points yesterday
  • NASDAQ index up 110 points. It rose 332.70 points yesterday.
  • S&P index up 31 points after rising 59.60 points yesterday
in the European markets today, major indices are higher as well after gains of about 1% yesterday:
  • German DAX, +1.17%
  • France's CAC, +1.6%
  • UK's FTSE 100, +0.4%
  • Spain's Ibex, +1.4%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.7%
in the US debt market, yields are trading higher with the yield curve steepening:

US yields are higher

In the European debt market yields are also trading higher:

European yields are mostly higher


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