USDCAD 100 hour MA at 1.2382
The USDCAD moved lower in the Asian session and traded to a new low price going back to July at 1.23105.
That low got within eight pips of the July low price at 1.2302 (see daily chart below). The price has bounced higher off of that target level.
The move to the upside has taken the price to a high on the hourly chart at 1.23736 (the price is backing off from that level). That high is working its way toward the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.2382 currently. The 100 hour MA is a key hurdle to get above if the buyers are to take more control.
The USDCAD tested that moving average yesterday and found sellers against it (at a higher level of course). Moving above the 100 hour moving average would give the buyers some added confidence but would still be the first step in a potential corrective move back to the upside. The last time the price traded above its 100 hour moving average was back on October 6, but the momentum above that moving average could not be sustained for long.
On a break above the 100 hour moving average, the next target would come at 1.24039 (50% of the most recent move lower), 1.2426 and the falling 200 hour moving average currently at 1.24377 (and moving lower).
Holding below the 100 hour MA (and sellers are currently pushing the price back down) would keep the sellers firmly in control. A move below the low from Friday at 1.23353 would give the shorts/sellers added confidence for a run toward the July low at 1.2302 (see daily chart below).
