USDCAD rallies with oil falling and USD safety buying

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Price moves above 38.2% of the move down from the September high 

The USDCAD is moving higher on the back of fall oil prices, along with the general USD safety buying.  The price of WTI crude oil is down -$1.28 or -3.21%.   The S&P index (-2.04%), Nasdaq index (-1.70%) and Dow (-2.55%) are falling sharply and leading to overall safety buying of the USD. 

Price moves above 38.2% of the move down from the September high 

Looking at the daily chart above, the pair has been moving up and down over the last few months with a low at 1.2993 and a high at 1.34179 (see red box in the chart above).   The midpoint of that move is at 1.32056. The price has just moved above that level to reach an intraday high at 1.32185.  Close risk is at that level now. 

Drilling down to the 4 hour chart below, the move down from the end of September has now seen the price move back above its 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.31889 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.32099. That is close to the 50% on the daily chart at 1.32056 (and just above 1.3200 natural support level)

For traders now, stay above the 1.3200-1.32056 area, and the buyers remain in control. They will be looking toward the 200 bar moving average on the same 4 hour chart comes in at 1.32279. That is the next key target on the upside.

Fall back below the 1.3200 level and a rotation back toward the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.3189 cannot be ruled out. A break back below that level would not be good for the bullish bias.

USDCAD on the 4 hour chart
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