It's been the same story for the whole of this week
Buyers are continuing to maintain a near-term bullish bias but the key psychological level @ 110.00 is still holding back an extension to the upside. My take on this is that a break above the key level is a signal of a more risk-on mood in markets. But unless there are positive developments from US-China trade talks, it's hard to see price take off just like that without affirmation on the optimistic mood.
As it stands, price is narrowing in further towards the 110.00 handle so be wary in the sessions ahead that we could see a breakout (either to the upside or downside) from the small wedge pattern being formed from the near-term trendline support and cap at the 110.00 level.
There are large expiries today that will contain price around 110.00 but just be aware that there is also another set closer to 110.50 which could stir the pot before they roll off later in US trading. If anything, I reckon that's where any bullish breakout will stop until there is positive news from US-China trade talks.
As for a downside breakout, look towards the 100-hour MA (red line) and the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 109.75 and 109.46 respectively. Those will be key levels to test buyers' resolve if they are to see a test of the figure level again next week.
