USDJPY has some negative intraday bias
While the EURUSD and GBPUSD trade near the dollar highs for the day, the USDJPY is making new lows and is lower on the day.
Starting by looking at the hourly chart going back to March, the high price moved up to 110.818. That was short of the swing high from the end of March at 110.96 and just short of that high at 110.833. There was some pause against the high. Since then the price has moved back below the swing high from April 6 at 110.546 (which also stalled at the 100 hour MA back on that day). The price today tried to stay above that level, but that level has given way in the last hour or so of trading. It is now a close bias defining level. Stay below is more bearish. Move above, and perhaps the correction is over. We will see.
Drilling up to the five minute chart below, the technical story is more clear.
The price on at that chart surged higher yesterday (with the USDs move). Today, the moving average caught up with the price and the pair traded above and below the 100 bar moving average (blue line), but found initial support against the 200 bar moving average (green line). The buyers were trying to stay in control. Buyers and sellers were battling.
The last move to the upside did extend back above the 100 bar MA. However, when the price moved back below that MA AND the rising 200 bar moving average which caught up to the 100 bar MA, the buyers turned sellers. The price has moved lower in the last hour of trading.
What now?
There is a swing area between 110.395 and 110.421 from yesterday. If the price was below that level the 50% of the move up yesterday comes into focus at 110.338. Moving back below the midpoint starts to tilt the bias even more to the sellers favor (especially if the swing area can then hold resistance under 110.421).
The USDJPY is telling a bit of a different story compared to the EURUSD (see analysis here), but the clues from both pairs, are in the price action and the technicals.
