USDJPY tried to extend above the 100 hour MA, but failed
100 hour MA at 108.628. Pair trades between the 100 hour MA above and the 200 hour MA below
The USDJPY is a little higher on the day, after opening in the red. The push to the upside was able to move back above the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 108.628, but that move did not last long. The price closed below that MA line and kept below since that failed bullish run.
So the bears are trying to push back lower.
The 108.44 to 108.47 area is a swing area (see red numbered circles). That area defined highs bck in mid-September and early October. It was highs and lows last week as well. Admittedly, the price moved below that area on Friday and again today, but could not reach the rising 200 hour moving average at the 108.299 level currently. If the price can get below the swing area and breach the 200 hour moving average, there should be more downside momentum with the 108.00 level a target (the 38.2% retracement of the move up in October comes in at 107.995).
If the sellers cannot get below the 108.44-47 area (and stay below). It will still take a move above the 100 hour moving average to give buyers more confidence for another run toward the hi from last week and the 200 day moving average at 108.933 and 109.054 respectively. The USDJPY is not traded above its 200 day moving average since May 6. Getting above (and staying above would be a result for the bulls going forward.
For now though, stay below the 100 hour moving average (and failing earlier in the day) keeps the sellers with the small control.