The euro has broken a double top and range that's held it in check since the middle of November.
The 50% retracement of the November breakdown is at 1.1437 and the 61.8% retracement is at 1.1497. Just above that is the 100-day moving average at 1.1511.
All of that makes 1.15 a decent target for a bounce. One factor that could help is a climb in bund yields above zero. They came close this week but have retreated and are at -0.06% now.
Eurozone officials are starting to feel the heat on inflation. They're pointing to energy as a potential risk and with brent near $85, they're not going to get much relief. On the gas front, TTF prices have fallen from a record above 180 euros to 75 but that's still a massive headwind for consumers and power prices, which will get pushed through the supply chain.
We get French and Spanish CPI numbers on Friday -- that could be the next catalyst. I'm also watching EUR/CHF, which has held a curious bid all week, but has flattened out today.
