The EURUSD on Friday's US jobs day, saw the price spike higher on the weaker headline jobs report. That initial move took the price above the 100 hour MA (blue line), but only briefly before reversing lower.
A few hours later after the failed break, the price cracked below its lower 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).
Like the spike above the 100 hour moving average, the fall below the 200 hour moving average was short-lived and quickly reversed.
Another late day move back above the 100 hour moving average failed again.The buyers gave up, and the price settled between the two moving averages.
As a result, the pair ended the day (and week) with a neutral technical bias at least in the short and medium-term. A winner could not be crowned.
The new week is starting with the pair not far from the closing levels on Friday, and still within the boundaries defined by the 100 hour moving average above at 1.13162, and the 200 hour moving average below at 1.12795. The current price is currently trading at 1.1296. Technical neutrality continues for the pair.
In order to crown a champion (or bias winner), the pair would have to extend outside the moving average levels. Simply put,
- A move back above the 100 hour moving average (and staying above) would be more bullish, while.
- A move below the 200 hour moving average (and stay below) would be more bearish.
In between (like the price is trading now) and the buyers and sellers are throwing punches at each other with no clear winner from a technical perspective.
It is early in the week, but ultimately there will be a break with hopeful momentum in the direction of the break. A break lower would look to target the swing area between 1.12488 and 1.12633. Below that, and traders will look toward the 1.12283 level before the price extreme from November 24 at 1.11853 (that was the low for the year).
Conversely, a move higher and above the 100 hour moving average, and swing area between 1.1321 and 1.13315, would have traders looking toward swing highs from Thursday at 1.1347, and Wednesday at 1.13592. Above that and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 28 high comes in at 1.13787. That retracement is between a swing area between 1.13735 and 1.13852.
Ultimately if the buyers are to take control, getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement level that would need to be broken to give buyers more control. Absent that, and the correction from the October 28 high, is a "plain-vanilla variety". The buyers may be winning the battle above the 100 hour MA, but the war is still in the sellers favor (below the 38.2% retracement).
