The trend higher steps above swing areas in the run higher today
The EURUSD has a solid 91 pip trading range - well above the 22 day average (about a month) of 68 pips - as the market price trends to the upside.
The pair on Monday traded above and below its 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.12704, but did close near the London session high and swing area between 1.12876 and 1.12942 (see green numbered circles). In the Asian session, traders into the price above the aforementioned swing area and then based against the level before buyers took control and pushed the price higher into the European/London session.
Higher than expected inflation data and positive German employment statistics helped to keep the move to the upside going. The price stepped above a higher swing area between 1.13215 and 1.13315 and headed up toward the next target against the November 18 high price at 1.13735 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 28 high at 1.13787. The high price stalled at 1.13720.
Getting above the 38.2% retracement of the move to the downside and November is a minimum retracement target to get to and through if the buyers are to continue its upside corrective probing. Absent that, and the movie is simply a corrective move within a bearish market.
For the month of November, the high was at 1.16158 on November 4. The low reach 1.11853 on November 4 (430 pips from high to low). That was near a high swing area going back to 2019/2020 between 1.11465 and 1.11837 (see yellow area and red numbered circles
on the daily chart below).
The last few months has extended the range for the year to a more respectable 1166 pip range.
Going into the last quarter of the year (end of September), the range for 2021 was only about 680 pips. The 430 pip range for the month of November, certainly helped to more normalize the low to high trading range.
PS. the high for the year was near the start of the year on January 6 (which was also the day of the storming of the US Capitol). The most recent cycle high (before the recent run lower) was on May 26 at 1.22657. That move from that high represents a -8.8% decline.