NZDUSD looks to test the 2021 lows

The  NZDUSD  has retraced its move higher after the FOMC yesterday. It now looks toward the swing lows from Monday and Tuesday at 0.6410. Those levels represent the low for the year and the lowest levels going back to July 2020. A break below would open the downside for more momentum.

The move up after the FOMC rate decision yesterday saw the price move above its 200 hour moving average for the 1st time since April 21. The swing high reached in the Asian session today also briefly breached the 38.2% retracement of the last trend move down from the April 20 high. That level comes in at 0.65638. The high price reached 0.6568 before rotating back to the downside. The inability to break with momentum the 38.2% retracement made the correction a plain-vanilla variety. That is not good enough in the dollar bullish environment seen in 2022.

The subsequent moved to the downside saw traders consolidate the him price around the 200 hour moving average in the London morning session (see green line in the chart above). That MA line was then broken with more momentum, but did stall right near the 100 hour moving average for a brief moment. That MA line has now been broken with more momentum sending the price toward the lows for the year. It would now take a move back above the 100 hour moving average at 0.64598 to give the buyers more hope that he low is in place. Absent that, and the sellers are in firm contro him him l.

Higher rates and sharply lower stocks are a bad combination:

Typically when there is a sharp decline in stocks, there is some relief and flight to safety into US treasuries. That is not the case so far today.