The USDCHF extended above the Monday high yesterday but only by a few pips. Buyers turned sellers and the overall dollars selling push the price back toward the swing high from last Friday's trade (jobs day in the US).
In trading today the price initially moved higher in the Asian/early European session, only to reverse lower. After testing the rising 100 hour moving average, that moving average was broken after the CPI data and the floodgates were opened for further downside momentum.
- The 100 day moving average at 0.92138 was broken.
- The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 31 low was broken at 0.92099
- the 200 hour moving average at 0.9192 and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 31 low at 0.91892 or both broken.
The price low just reached the swing low from Friday's close and Monday's open at 0.91808. Recall on Friday and Monday, the pair was basing against its 100 hour moving average at that time and that level. That helped to push the price higher. The full move to the upside has now been retraced (the lap is complete).
On a break, the 0.9174 swing level along with the 61.8% retracement at 0.91685 and the 200 day moving average at 0.91644 area will all be downside targets. On Thursday of last week, the price based against the 200 day moving average before moving higher.
Close risk is not the 200 hour MA at 0.9192 with more conservative risk up to 0.92013 (high of swing area - see red numbered circles and yellow area). Stay below those levels keeps the sellers more control.