USDJPY pausing around a swing area

The USDJPY formed a bottom on Wednesday and Thursday last week at 121.30 (3 lows near that level on the hourly chart above - red circles). The price moved above the 200 hour MA (green line) on Friday. Both on Monday and again yesterday, the price stalled near that 200 MA line, keeping the buyers in play (and control). All that support, increases that levels importance. It also gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher.

The price moved away from that MA level, broke above a swing area between 123.026 and 123.188, and today has traded above and below a swing high on the hourly at 123.803. Another swing high (high from March 28) at 124.29 was NOT approached. The high reached 124.04 today.

The up and down above the 123.803 level today is saying the buyers and sellers are a bit unsure. Rates are higher due to more aggressive Fed tightening and QT potential as well (quantitative tightenings) which is dollar bullish.

However, the opposite of that is the upcoming recession breaks the inflation 's back, rates ultimately fall, and inflation falls (at the cost of a recession). Lower stocks can also lead to lower USDJPY.

That storyline could lead to a lower dollar.

So there is push me/pull me storyline and that might be keeping the USDJPY in check for now (and causing the pause).

So flip a coin and follow the levels for the next clue/shove.

Move away from the 123.803, and on the topside 124.293 is the next target.

On the downside, the swing area at 123.02 to 123.188 are targets followed by the rising 100/200 hour MAs.

Move below the MAs (especially the 200 hour MA) and buyers turn to stronger sellers (or should) with a bias shift and the breaking of that well tested MA line.