The USDJPY traded most of yesterday above its 100 hour moving average (blue line) . The high price - after the bounce away from its Asian session low near the 100 hour moving average - did find resistance against its 200 hour moving average (green line). That led to a retracement all the way back down toward the low for the day before settling near the close level from Monday.
In trading today, the initial reaction in the Asian session was to the upside, with a move above a swing area between 114.651 and 114.694. The high price extended to 114.714 but well short of its falling 200 hour moving average.
The subsequent fall took the price below the lows from yesterday (and 50% retracement) and then the 100 hour MA. The low at 114.197 tested another swing area between 114.203 and 114.288 (see red numbered circles). Dip buyers against the swing area stalled the fall.
The price bounced once again above the 100 hour moving average, but has since rotated back down toward the lows for the day and lower swing area.
What next?
Getting below the 114.203 level - and staying below - would open the door for a move toward the 114.00 area (down to 113.954). Move below that area, and traders will start to target a swing area at 113.77 to 113.806.
Hold here against the earlier session low and swing area at 114.20, and a rotation back above the 100 hour moving average, would likely disappoint the sellers, and give the buyers more confidence for a further squeeze to the upside. Getting above 114.65 to 114.69 target the falling 200 hour moving average currently at 114.808
