There’s little doubt that a Yes decision on Thursday will not only launch a real watershed moment in the history of the UK but also give BOE governor Carney a real headache as he tries to gauge the full effect of the fall-out.
There also seems little doubt that he and the MPC will not be rushing to raise interest rates given the uncertainty and this is adding to the bearish tone to the pound, quite apart from the pressures caused by the Scottish preference for currency union.
If the No voters win the day then we can still expect some turmoil as markets look at the effect of “devo-max” and the knock-on effect in the economy as well as the political landscape. This morning the three main UK political leaders have pledged to devolve more powers to Scotland but there is no guarantee that these initiatives will be voted through and perhaps ask more questions than they answer.
All in all it’s going to be messy whatever happens and it’s going to need a cool hand on the tiller at the Old Lady.
