The quarterly statement on monetary policy from the RBA:
- Inflation ex-carbon tax in 2012 cut to 2.5% from 3.0%
- 2012 GDP to 4% from 4.5%
- Growth this year to 2.75% from 3.25%
- Unemployment will rise a little then ease back
- Revises down global growth to 4%, with downside risks
- Growth in Asia remains solid
The largest risk to these forecasts is the sovereign debt and banking problems in the euro area. The Bank’s central scenario continues to be one in which the European authorities do enough to avert a disaster, but are not able to avoid periodic bouts of considerable uncertainty and volatility.
Most of this was telegraphed in the RBA decision. AUD unmoved.
