This report was out an hour ago and it's likely what's boosted Treasury yields today. It's from the WSJ's Nick Timiraos, who is one of the people likely leaked Fed talking points ahead of the June FOMC surprise.
Given that, all his writings now take on added importance.
"Central bankers worry that the recent surge in inflation may represent not a temporary phenomenon but a transition to a new, lasting reality," he writes in the latest.
It quotes a March Mark Carney speech and other recent comments from global central bankers. It then recaps some of the well-hashed-out arguments around secular trends in inflation including:
- Deglobalization
- The aging workforce and Goodhart's 'Great Demographic Reversal'
- Commodity market tightness and the green transition
- Supply shock vulnerabilities
It ends ominously, with this:
"Several former Fed officials who have worked closely with Mr. Powell say he is likely to err on the side of raising rates too much, rather than too little, because tolerating excessive inflation would represent a much greater institutional failure for the central bank"
