Forex futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the close on Tuesday, March 11 , 2014:

  • EUR net long 36K vs long 23K prior
  • JPY net short 99K vs short 79K prior
  • GBP net long 22K vs long 30K prior
  • AUD net short 40K vs short 41K prior
  • CAD net short 52K vs short 61K prior
  • CHF net long 9K vs long 2K prior
  • NZD net long 14K vs long 13K prior

There were quite a few notable moves this week. The FX market got it right with a move into euro longs ahead of the break to the two years high. The fresh positions show, however, that EUR/USD might be vulnerable to a short squeeze if we get a decline from here.

The market got it wrong by ramping up yen shorts once again. The yen was the top performer all week and the late-coming shorts may have already been shaken out.

The Swissy is suddenly getting some love with longs on the fear trade likely in play while the commodity bloc didn’t see much action aside from some profit taking in CAD shorts after the BOC decision.