Courtesy of MNI here’s the view of some of the bank analysts
RBS says if ECB cuts 10bp or 15 bp across all rates “it’s priced”, but if ECB cuts 10bp or 15bp on refi but Deposit Facility Rate still at 0%, then “initial disappointment but markets will reason that quantitative measures are more likely given the noises made in recent weeks.”
BAML says overall, it thinks “markets may cheer up on Draghi communication, then deflate a little bit when markets realise the liquidity is not out there yet.” BAML says possible surprises include: 1) non conditional lending; 2) small asset (ABS) purchase (E75bn-E100bn)
Deutsche Bank says “a 10bp cut to each of [the] rates appears to be the market consensus, our view and is fully priced-in. A 15bp cut would be the ECB over-delivering while anything less than 10bp would be a case of under-delivery.”
SocGen says mkts are pricing in possibility that Draghi delivers a risk-friendly message successfully. “The reaction to failure to cut rates at all would be bigger than even the announcement a large-scale asset purchase prog.”
