The AUDJPY has been consolidating at the top over the last few days after a strong rally higher since August 7th has seen the price move up from 93.91 to a high of 98.662.
AUDJPY is testing the 100 hour MA now. A move below and staying below is needed to solicit more selling pressure.
Today the price failed to extend to new highs on the rally higher. The pair is currently testing the 100 hour MA at the 98.29 level (will need a break below low for the day at 98.27 too).
Move below and stay below and a further correction will be eyed. The 98.12 (trend line on hourly chart above) and 97.93 (38.2% in hourly chart above) are the next targets on a break. The price of the AUDJPY has not traded below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) since August 13th.
Risk for shorts is 98.50 now. That would take the price back above 200 and 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart (green and blue line in the chart below) and the highs from yesterday NY and London sessions. The ceiling at the 98.47 level seems pretty strong. It certainly defines risk for those looking for the top being in place.
Although picking a top is fun especially after such a trend move higher, it still is a trending market. I can assure you there have been many tries to pick a top on the trend move higher. However, the pair is showing extended consolidation for the first time and making some breaks lower.
The AUDJPY has resistance now at 98.47. Needs to stay below to keep the sellers in control and chance for further correction lower.
