Preview of the Australian employment data (Labour Force Survey) due for publication from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 6 November 2014

Due from Australia on Thursday (0030GMT on 06 November 2014) is the employment data for October. Those following Aussie data releases will recall that this has been an extremely volatile data set, especially in the last 12 months or so … and last month the Australian Bureau of Statistics admitted that something was wrong the process for this survey. On Tuesday of this week the ABS released revised figures for the past 10 months in an effort to correct the errors it was getting (see this Forget the last 10 months of Australian jobs data and this Australia – revised labour data for the past 10 months released now).

The most shocking revision (for me at least) was this:

  • Change in employment between July and August 2014 has been revised from growth of 32,100 persons to a fall of 9,000

I say it was shocking to me because the RBA doesn’t seem to give a rat’s may not have seen it yet. </sarcasm>.

Oh, yeah. the unemployment rate is now at its highest in 12 years too. But, still, the RBA says the “prudent course is for a period of stability for rates”. I can’t say I agree, but there you go.

OK, enough of a preamble, here’s what’s being released:

  • Employment Change, expected +22.5K, prior -23.7K
  • Unemployment Rate, expected 6.2%, prior 6.2%
  • Full Time Employment Change, prior was +21.6K
  • Part Time Employment Change, prior was -51.3K
  • Participation Rate, expected is 64.5%, prior was 64.5%

Looking ahead at what this all means for the RBA. of course, we will have to wait and see what the result is. but, if it comes in close to expectations of decent jobs gain it argues for another reason why there will be no imminent action from the RBA.

  • The next RBA meeting is on December 2. I’m going all Buddhist and expecting nothing (at this stage, anyway).
  • There is no meeting in January (Australia is at the beach)
  • The following meeting is on February 3, which would seem the earliest opportunity for the RBA to act, should they choose too

One more thing … the RBA is concerned about the rapid growth in housing finance, especially to investors. I expect there will be some specific form of macroprudentail control introduced, or at least proposed in December/January.