Researcher says fall in oil price to inrease China GDP, boost trade surplus

Via MNI … Ma Jun (chief economist of the People’s Bank of China research bureau).

Says an average annual 10% fall in oil prices:

• Could increase China’s annual GDP by 0.12 percentage point
• Reduce average annual CPI by 0.2 to 0.3 points
• Boost the trade surplus as a percentage of GDP by 0.16 percentage point

Adds that:

• Oil prices this year will be weak at first but could go higher
• Based on this forecast, Chinese year-on-year CPI growth may follow this trend