Barclays analysts on the Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, but first a few words from our chaps holding down the fort during the overnight:

I don't extend thanks to Mike, Adam and Greg enough, but I do appreciate what they do while we all wait for the Asian session to start ;-)

OK, where was I ... here we go, via Barclays (I've summarised):

We were interested to receive information on two topics to which the minutes could rightly speak:

  1. how concerned were FOMC members about the recent softness in inflation
  2. and when might the committee make a formal announcement on the timing of a change in its balance sheet reinvestment policy

We interpret the minutes to be in line with our baseline outlook

  • We continue to expect a formal announcement to change the reinvestment policy at the September meeting
  • followed by a third rate increase this year in December as most FOMC members see recent softness in inflation as driven by idiosyncratic factors