Barclays analysts on the Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes, but first a few words from our chaps holding down the fort during the overnight:
- December Fed hike odds barely budge after FOMC minutes
- Dollar falls quickly and bounces even quicker after Fed minutes
- FOMC Minutes: Viewed recent softness in inflation data having little bearing on trend
I don't extend thanks to Mike, Adam and Greg enough, but I do appreciate what they do while we all wait for the Asian session to start ;-)
OK, where was I ... here we go, via Barclays (I've summarised):
We were interested to receive information on two topics to which the minutes could rightly speak:
- how concerned were FOMC members about the recent softness in inflation
- and when might the committee make a formal announcement on the timing of a change in its balance sheet reinvestment policy
We interpret the minutes to be in line with our baseline outlook
- We continue to expect a formal announcement to change the reinvestment policy at the September meeting
- followed by a third rate increase this year in December as most FOMC members see recent softness in inflation as driven by idiosyncratic factors