Poloz answering questions:
- We expect a temporary slowdown in Q1
- Recent drop in oil prices in Q4 was pretty bad
- The US-led trade war is the only real thing that keeps me up at night
- There's a strong correlation in a rollover in business sentiment, the common factor is the risk of an outright trade war
- If sentiment deteriorated that quickly, it can pickup just as quickly if it's resolved
- An outright trade war would cause a significant slowdown at the global level, which would hurt everyone
- I'm heartened by what I'm reading about trade negotiations
- I can't believe the auto business would be a security threat to the United States
- Relationship among global central bankers is as high as I've ever seen it, we meet 6-8 times per year
- You can be assured that in case of an emergency we can work together
The first question was "what keeps you up at night?". It wasn't ironically asked. Poloz has been asked that exact question a hafl-dozen times in the past year (at least) and gave a speech titled "what keeps me up at night." That he continues to be asked the same question shows just how little research the panel moderators do.
Overall, his comments outlined what markets were already looking at. The Canadian dollar is down on the trade war comment but that's the wrong take. He's talking about a theoretically full-on trade war, not what we have currently.
Coming up, Poloz will take questions from reporters. There will also be a webcast:
