Minutes from the Bank of England MPC meeting now out 15 Sept
- MPC view of the contours of the economic outlook have not changed from Aug
- raises Q3 GDP forecast to +0.3% qq vs +0.1% but expects flash data of +02%
- expect inflation to be a little lower than forecast
- recent data consistent with view that business spending will slow more sharply than consumer spending
- August stimulus measures led to greater than expected boost to UK asset prices
- near term view for housing market less neg than exp
- MPC's Forbes, McCafferty said outlook does not warrant expanded QE but reversing Aug decision too costly
- if BOE's Nov outlook broadly consistent with August view most MPC members expect to vote for a rate cut during the course of the year
GDP vs inflation expectations at loggerheads and that helps leave GBPUSD largely unchanged at 1.3232 having had a quick look at 1.3200 again.
The Minutes reflect the current mood I highlighted in my preview.. Some optimism/relief vs caution on test/uncertainty ahead. Leaving options open but still leaning toward another cut.
EURGBP still 0.8495 after a quick 0.8485-0.8510 journey.
Full Minutes on the BOE website