Comments from Bostic in Ireland

  • It was time to put our policy on a more-neutral range
  • My view has not changed very much on how monetary policy should operate
  • It's important that we don't go too fast and inadvertently hurt economy
  • Need to 'wait and see' how the economy responds
  • Things have changed a little, businesses less certain about 2019
  • One more increase for 2019 is my projection. 2.5% growth is consistent with 1 hike
  • Has not come to a view on what size reserves Fed should carry on balance sheet
  • Govt shutdown is not going to show up in numbers too deeply. Another level of uncertainty
  • Trade uncertainty with China and NAFTA revisions are risks now
  • Slowdowns in China and Europe are significant
  • American consumer likely to feel tariffs for first time in next round
  • hopeful that if housing market does turn, won't be as calamitous as the past

The hike in 2019 is an interesting twist. It shows the Fed is still hawkish but wants a good reason to hike before acting and will probably wait until late in the year.