Fed Governor Brainard discusses the economic outlook

  • Vaccines and spending all point to steady economic improvement
  • Economy still far from goals, will need patience
  • Increased vaccines point to strong modal outlook for 2021
  • Inflation low but inflation expectations have moved closer to 2%
  • To take 'some time' to see substantial further progress
  • Job market repair needs to move beyond headline unemployment rate, be 'broad-based and inclusive' of those hardest hit by pandemic recession

Nothing on the recent rise in yields. This is a re-hashing of the same things Powell has been saying for awhile.

Brainard will answer questions from a moderator after the speech, which is being hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.

One takeaway is that she isn't leaning against the rise in yields. Silence is akin to endorsement.

On the flipside, the main point of the speech is that rates aren't rising for a long time, so that's a different kind of accommodation.

The long-standing presumption that accommodation should be reduced preemptively when the unemployment rate nears estimates of the neutral rate in anticipation of high inflation that is unlikely to materialize risks an unwarranted loss of opportunity for many of the most economically vulnerable Americans.