Even the hawks throwing in the towel

  • Should proceed with caution, be patient on rate hikes
  • Rates are not yet at neutral, but close
  • Pause would give time to assess effect of rate hikes so far
  • If inflation pressures emerge, more rate hikes could be needed
  • Somewhat slower growth this year, yet still above potential
  • Financial market conditions have tightened
  • Farm sector downturn made worse by tariffs
  • Upside and downside risks to outlook

George is one of the most-hawkish FOMC members and possibly the most hawkish. She's giving up on hikes here and signaling a pause. This is a notable shift and sign that no hikes are coming any time soon.