Interview with David Rubenstein
- financial markets expressing concerns about downside risks
- inflation is low on under control
- have the ability to be patient given inflation data
- labor markets by many measures are very strong
- Has two rate hikes median in summary of economic projections
- does not lobby Fed colleagues over policy
- do not see any evidence of a slowdown
- markets seem to be pricing and pessimism on growth, trade
- can move policy flexibly and quickly if economic data warrants it
- don't see anything showing elevated recession risks
- government shutdown typically don't last long or it economy
- no inflation risk that would require the Fed to hit the brakes. Also does not see any financial instabilities that would require the Fed to act
- principal worry is over global growth, and how much that would impact the US
- Sees 2019 inflation around 2%
- strongly anchored inflation expectations a key that asset
- slowing economy in China is a concern for the US
- likely baseline for China is another year of solid growth
- tariffs not had much of a visible mark on US, China
- if trade dispute leads to lower tariffs it is good
- we want to return balance sheet to a more normal level
- worried about extent of US debt in the long run
- does not know the appropriate level of the Fed balance sheet but it will be "substantially smaller" then it is now
- unemployment moving down a bit if Fed outlook met
- Fed is very flexible in adapting policy if economy moves
- we have a very favorable inflation dynamics
