Here's a downside call for EUR/USD on the ECB
I posted a preview summary for the European Central Bank policy meeting here:
If you check it outy ou'll see a preponderance of calls for the upside risk for EUR.
An alternative view now, this snippet via TD:
Analysts there looking for:
- 20bps rate cut
- 40bn EUR per month of QE
- no rate hike projection until mid 2021 at the earliest
- We're more comfortable with the rates view than QE, as QE will likely be a contentious decision.
- Our dovish ECB call has us looking for downside risks to EURUSD. We think spot will be more sensitive to a large QE announcement than rate cuts as much of the expected Fed/ECB policy path differential already looks priced.