The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is this week, announcement due at 0100GMT on Wednesday.
Despite the all caps in the headline a 'no change' in policy is the expected, RBNZ to remain on hold.
A really brief preview would be something like:
- On hold OCR at 1.75%
- Neutral outlook (could hike, could cut)
- Acknowledge downside risks: global and domestic
OK. There is a 'shadow board' of economists in NZ, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Monetary Policy Shadow Board. This morning they have issued their latest opinion, which is 'no change' is appropriate (bolding mine … potential easing bias?):
- "... continued trade tensions between the US and China, slowing growth in China, and little sign that a Brexit agreement is close.
- Given uncertainty over the growth outlook, there remains some potential for a rate cut over the coming year. This has seen a slight easing bias creep in going into this OCR decision"
Link is here for a little more.
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ps. Its worth nothing that NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board is independent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Participants outline where they think interest rates should be, not what they believe will happen.
