Earlier this week I posted the squidster's thoughts:

And also Barclays (do they have a funky nick name?):

More now, this time via:


We expect the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by 25bp

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is likely to dissent in favour of leaving rates unchanged, as he did in March and June. It is possible that Chicago Fed President Charles Evans could also vote against the rate hike; this would be his first dissent this year.

We do not expect any major surprises from the policy statement.

  • The statement will probably repeat that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate, while dropping earlier references to hurricane-related disruptions.
  • The FOMC will likely repeat that near-term risks appear roughly balanced and that inflation developments will be monitored closely.
  • Finally, the statement will likely reiterate the guidance that the Committee anticipates gradual increases in the federal funds rate.

We expect the FOMC's median projection for GDP growth to be lifted slightly for the next several years.

  • The projection for 2017 could be increased to 2.5%, up from 2.4% in September.
  • The 2018 projection could be raised to 2.3% from 2.1%,
  • and the 2019 projection could be raised to 2.1% from 2.0%.

We expect the FOMC's median projection for unemployment at the end of 2018 to be lowered slightly to 4.0% from 4.1%.

The FOMC's median estimates for core PCE inflation in 2018 and 2019 could be left unchanged, at 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively.

We expect the FOMC's median projection for policy rates at the end of 2018 to remain at 2.1%, implying three 25bp rate hikes over the course of next year.

  • Some of the policymakers may shift their rate projections for 2019 and 2020, but on balance we expect the median projections for those years will stay at 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively.

This will be Ms Yellen's final post-meeting press conference as Fed Chair.

She is likely to strike a balanced tone with respect to the future course of policy, continuing to endorse the FOMC's message that gradual rate hikes are likely to be warranted in the coming year. The Chair may be asked about the potential macroeconomic effects of the tax reform efforts currently under consideration in Congress.