No fear of Swiss gold rush – SNB action inevitable at 1.20 says UBS

Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: Central Banks

USB forex strategist Beat Siegenthaler says the gold initiative appears to have a low chance of success and that  we might get some clue of that at the next poll.

If the “yes” vote fades in the poll then the issue will fade ahead of the referendum he says. If the “yes’s” increase then we will likely see pressure on EUR/CHF.

Which ever way the vote goes he doesn’t see many scenarios where the SNB would remove the peg.

  • Removing the floor would require political discussions and a parliamentary decision
  • SNB unlikely to impose negative rates, unless gold vote goes against them but would be very cautious of doing so
  • SNB may hope that intervention is sufficient but says any big jump won’t last, until negative rates are introduced
  • Biggest impact could be on EUR crosses, bonds and equities rather than EUR/CHF
  • SNB may be forced to enter somewhere at or above 1.2010

EUR/CHF has made a new low today, by only a fraction of a pip I think. Yesterday’s low was 1.20218. Today it’s 1.20213. Makes all the difference to the charts don’t you know ;-)

While the pair is in focus it might be an apt time to swissy traders to make sure you have a tight grip on your trades and platforms. If we do get some hairy action at the peg then the spreads are going to blow out and all sorts of potential problems might happen with retail trading platforms. I remember having to phone up one of my brokers after the price apparently traded about 50 pips through the cap and only on the bid side. It was scrubbed from the charts and I wasn’t affected (though I was on the bid at a price it went through) but I bet it took a few stops with it. Just a warning to be careful.

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