Barclays say they are expecting the minutes "to reveal that most committee members see the economy as evolving in line with expectations."
- We expect participants to point to strong rates of growth in consumption and employment, as indicating that fiscal stimulus is passing through to activity more or less as members anticipated when they last updated their forecasts in June.
- While members will likely point to upside risk from stimulus and downside risk from protectionism, we believe it likely that the main message will be that gradual rate hikes remain appropriate.
- We also expect to see some discussion around potential language changes to the statement, including the appropriate degree of forward guidance and whether policy remains accommodative, but we do not see these changes as making their way into the statement until closer to year-end
I posted earlier:
Later in the week, Powell:
