The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement and statement are due at 0430GMT
Earlier previews:
- RBA announcement coming up today - preview of what to expect (via Westpac)
- AUD - RBA meeting Tuesday 2 July 2018 - quick preview (via ANZ)
- <a title="The Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow, announcement at 2.30pm local time (0430GMT) TD with their outlook, bolding mine Probability Dovish (AUD - RBA meet Tuesday 2 July 2018, here is a preview (via TD)
This now via National Australia Bank:
The RBA Board is certain to keep the cash rate on hold this Tuesday. Not even a single basis point hike is priced in by the market, a reflection of the Bank's clear willingness to wait for a meaningful lift in wages growth and inflation and in no mood to cut either. Consistent with this, Governor Lowe's comments at last week's ECB Central Banking Forum noted three options for central banks faced with low wages growth and inflation:
- 1) More stimulus - lower interest rates, do more QE etc.
- 2) Accept inflation will be a bit lower than desired and allow a gradual return to target.
- 3) Try and lift inflation expectations - in theory this will also lift actual inflation outcomes.
The RBA is strongly aligned to the second option. It's a data dependent, wait-and-see approach, though markets are likely to be alert to any changes on
- international trade policy and potential spill overs,
- local housing developments,
- and the ever-rising price of oil
for any suggestions of a more dovish monetary policy tilt.
