Decision due at 3 PM ET/2000 GMT

The RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% when they announce at 3 PM ET/2000 GMT.

For a review of comments from Eamonn and other investment banks CLICK HERE and HERE.

What levels are in play technically?

Taking a broad look at the daily chart, going back to December 2016, there are three swing levels in play.

  1. 0.6891 is the swing low from March 2017
  2. 0.6861 is the swing low from December 2017
  3. 0.6817 are the swing lows from May 2017, October 2017 and November 2017 ****

In between is the 50% of the move up from the July 2015 low at 0.68423

The price currently trades above each of those levels at 0.6921. The low today stalled ahead of the highest level (low reached 0.6895).

Should the price action head lower, those targets are natural bearish targets to step lower through. Get through one and go for the next. The triple bottom at 0.6817 is obviously a key level. A break below and stops should be triggered.

On the topside, looking at the 4-hour chart below, the high today is stalling at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. The pair has not been above that MA line since October 19th when the pair was toying with the 200 day MA.

A move above that level would target (see green numbered circles in the chart below):

  • 0.6963 - 38.2% of the move down from the October 16 high
  • Above that the topside trend line cuts across at 0.6985.
  • The 50% comes in around the 0.7000 level at 0.7008..
  • The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour(green line at 0.7050). swing lows from early October and the 61.8% at 0.70538 all converge in that area. A move above should open the door for further upside momentum.

Those are the technical steps to the downside and to the upside given comments from the central bank.