Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting decision coming up.

Earlier previews:

While we count down, RBC thoughts:

  • RBNZ is universally expected to keep rates at 0.25%
  • Since the May meeting, activity data have been mixed, but the more important news RBNZ will have to take on board is the advanced state of reopening of the economy - NZ now has the loosest constraints on activity in G10, according to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker
  • We still think markets overprice the risk of negative rates in NZ ... if Governor Orr plays down this risk, NZD should outperform