The “When will rates rise” argument is becoming cloudy again since Carney did some back tracking on his early rise call and the economy entered a soft patch. While that hasn’t stopped two of the MPC hawks hoisting their flag the question will be will anyone else join them?
There’s nothing going to happen at this meeting but the focus will again be on the minutes in two weeks time. As we tick closer to 2015 the market will probably start its knickers in a twist as to when the rest of the MPC will start turning.
Until then the pound is going to be swayed by the data which is softening in parts, and all the Scottish guff going on.
The minutes of this meeting are a day before the Scottish vote and so it might provide us with an opportunity. Any other MPC members voting for hikes and a “No” vote in Scotland could see the pound make some decent gains. Throw in the possibility of more usual dovish rhetoric from the FOMC too and there’s a nice mix for pound buyers to be hopeful for.
I’m still getting twitchy to buy the pound but I’m still not confident that we’ve seen the last of the downside. Another round of good US data today and tomorrow could see the pound hit again.
At the moment the 1.6300 area looks to be my most favourable entry point. It was an area of prior strong resistance and also has the 38.2 fib of the July 2013 swing up around the level too.
GBP/USD Weekly chart 04 09 2014
I’d look to buy it down towards 1.6000 and there’s support the way from the broken August 2009 resistance at 1.6156, 100 wma at 1.6085 and the combination of the 200 wma and 50 fib at 1.60. A decisive break of 1.60 could spell real trouble for long term longs who were in from 1.50 last year.
There’s always an opportunity and sometimes patience is the key to providing the big rewards.