But it will probably be a speedbump
There hasn't been much going on in the market today in markets in the countdown to the Fed decision. The theme in the past few hours has been a retracement in the US dollar as positions are squared.
The main question for today is whether the Fed will extend the weighted average of its bond portfolio but it's not likely and I'd peg the odds at 15%.
The larger question is whether Powell will continue to keep more easing on the table and leave the market with the impression that rates will remain at zero through 2023.
The risk is that on any slip-up the market will sense weakness and some of the overextended positions will be flushed. Given the huge run-up lately, it could be a rush to the exits.
I believe Powell will continue to be a dove and the market will get back to doing what it's been doing: Selling dollars, buying commodities and risk assets.
