Via Commerzbank's daily note (out overnight)

The monetary policy side of things is unlikely to provide any momentum for the USD exchange rates until year-end

  • Janet Yellen ... likely to be seen as a "lame duck" now
  • Market participants ... interested in the monetary policy view of ... Powell
  • However, so far his most conspicuous quality was his inconspicuousness

It would seem that over the remaining weeks of the year the risks for USD will be mainly of a political nature

  • It is possible for example that Congress surprises positively and agrees on a tax reform before year-end
  • Senators are expected to vote within the coming 10 days
  • Following that representatives of the two houses will get together to consolidate the two bills
  • In view of the massive differences that exist this is likely to turn into a mammoth task, but perhaps one should not underestimate the will of the Republicans who by now desperately need a legislative success.