The euro is back off the US lows at 1.1590 but still near the US lows of 1.1568 after climbing to as high as 1.1680 in the confusion after the ECB leaks.

My initial take was that the news was bearish for the euro and I sold a bit close to 1.1640 and have covered it now. I’m kicking myself because I should have done it with more size.

The thing about a decision as complicated as the ECB is that you always get the sense that someone knows more than you. It’s one thing to look at the market and say ‘this doesn’t make sense’ but it’s another thing to trade it.

EURUSD intraday

EURUSD intraday

At the end of the day, you have to trust your analysis but it’s very tough to fight a market that’s moving on complicated news. Especially when you know that euro shorts are already crowded and nothing is certain at tomorrow’s ECB.

Overall, if what we saw today is a preview of the kind of whippy moves that are coming, it might be best to stay away until the dust settles. If you have to make a trade, I still think 1.1640 is an important line in the sand and I’d prefer to sell as close to that as possible.