UBS (via MNi) have changed their view on RBA cash rate now:

  • Expecting the rate to be on hold through 2015 (previously they were forecasting 2 hikes in H2)

UBS cites:

  • The recent soft GDP data
  • This week’s poor business and consumer confidence data
  • Softer offshore news (such as lower commodity prices)

“It now seems the 2H15 will be too early for the RBA to step away from its current record low cash rate. While we continue to doubt growth will slow enough for further cuts, we now see the RBA staying on hold at 2.5% in 2015″